Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Leads to Possible End of Genocide in Gaza
It’s been over a year since the Israel-Hamas conflict escalated, leading to what some human rights’ experts have called a Palestinian genocide with more than 48,000 Palestinians killed, over 100,000 injured, and nearly 2 million internally displaced. The majority of the deaths in Israel occurred on October 7, 2023 or immediately after, totaling at least 1,600 dead and an estimated 13,500 Israelis wounded to date. A ceasefire deal, which went into effect on Jan. 19, has provided relief and hope to Palestinians in Gaza, many of whom have been living in tent camps or in bombed-out buildings without adequate food, medical supplies, fuel, etc., for months.
The news of the ceasefire, brokered by U.S., Qatari and Egyptian mediators, led to immediate celebration throughout the Gaza Strip as locals have now started to return home after enduring more than a year of near constant Israeli bombing.
There are three stages to the ceasefire deal with each stage lasting 42 days. During the first phase of the agreement, both parties will cease fighting and Israeli forces will withdraw into a “buffer zone around 1 kilometer (0.6 miles) wide inside of Gaza” along its border with Israel.
A subsequent captive exchange will occur in which both sides will first release their children, elderly and women captives in respective order. Hamas has set 33 Israelis free, and in return, Israel released 30 Palestinians for every one Israeli released. There are around 16,000 Palestinian captives in Israel and 100 Israelis and other nationalities as captives in Gaza.
These initial “humanitarian” exchanges include the dead bodies of civilians killed on both sides, though both Israel and Hamas agree that most are alive. During this initial phase, Israel will also allow for “sufficient quantities of humanitarian aid” to flow unimpeded into Gaza, while temporarily ceasing its nonstop military flights over Gaza. The United Nations said that 915 aid trucks entered Gaza on Monday, January 20, 2025.
For the second phase, Hamas will release some Israeli male captives, both civilian and military. In exchange, Israel will release an unspecified number of Palestinians. Again, said exchanges include some dead bodies; the specific number of which is unknown, but is understood to be less than the number of those alive. Second phase captive exchanges will not occur unless a “sustainable calm” is achieved and all Israeli forces leave Gaza entirely.
The last stage should see the return of the last remaining Palestinian captives by Israel. It should also mark the beginning of a five-year reconstruction plan that aims to rebuild Gazan homes and infrastructure, most of which has been destroyed by Israel’s nonstop bombing campaign since Oct. 7, 2023.
According to the mainstream Israeli newspaper Times of Israel, a slim majority of Israelis approve of the ceasefire deal, while 45% believe the war should have continued.
Some of the most ardent opposition to the deal has in fact come from Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu’s own extreme right-wing coalition, many of whom had promised to vote against the proposed deal when it was due for ratification by the Security Cabinet of Israel. The scheduled ratification vote was postponed several times before both sides could come to an acceptable agreement. Still some eight out of the 24 cabinet ministers ultimately voted against the agreement indicating the growing divisions within Israeli government and society at large.
During the first day of the ceasefire, Itamar Ben-Gvir resigned from his position as Israel’s national security minister because of his strong opposition. Ben-Gvir is a far-right ultranationalist who’s known for being extreme — he once encouraged police to shoot at Palestinian stone-throwers.
During these tense cabinet meetings, Netanyahu appeared to alleviate some concerns from his internal opposition stating that by the time President Trump takes office “we will again receive all the weaponry that was held up.” This “weaponry” likely refers to certain “high-payload munitions” that the Biden administration decided to withhold from the Israeli military back in May of last year.
The U.S. has given more than $23bn in aid to Israel since Oct. 7, 2023, and before the end of his presidential term on January 4, then-President Biden’s administration introduced to Congress an $8bn weapons sale to Israel. The sale hasn’t been finalized yet.
Netanyahu also claimed to have received guarantees from the U.S. that should negotiations with Hamas fail, it would continue to receive U.S. backing in a renewed assault on Gaza. An Israeli envoy to Washington told press they expect President Trump to lift the pause of 2,000-pound bombs supplied to Israeli in his first days in office.
Obstacles to a Permanent Ceasefire
While both Israel and Hamas have praised the deal, claiming to have achieved a victory over the other, both have also stopped short of committing to a permanent cessation of military operations. As a result, many fear that Israel will simply resume the bombing after the last of its captives have been recovered. To prevent this possibility, Hamas has stated that it will not fully release all of the captives it has until it receives assurances from Israel that it will permanently cease its military operations in Gaza.
The particulars of the second phase captive exchanges have also not been fully agreed upon yet, as Israel is hesitant to release certain Palestinians who have been accused of serious crimes. Further negotiations on these exchanges are currently scheduled to resume during the first stage of the ceasefire.
Significant disagreements also persist over what is and what isn’t considered to be Gazan territory, with Israel continuing to occupy Gaza’s borders and the crucial Netzarim Corridor that currently divides Gaza into two parts. Further negotiations on that particular issue are scheduled to occur during the second phase of the ceasefire, and will be crucial toward seeing the full withdrawal of the Israeli military from Gaza.
Of course it isn’t promised that any agreements will be made on these points, in which case a return to conflict would be likely. If that were to happen, it wouldn’t be the first time, as a week long Israel-Hamas ceasefire was previously agreed to back in November 2023 lasting only a week before combat resumed.
Future Outlook
Despite the monumental agreement which guarantees at least a temporary pause to one of the deadliest conflicts of the modern era, significant hurdles remain. Still, for the Palestinians, it at least offers a much needed break from the near nonstop death and destruction that the Gaza Strip has endured for well over a year.
For Hamas, it represents a significant boost to their profile as they can once again boast that they have successfully thwarted one the largest and most technologically advanced armed forces in modern history. This, despite being severely outnumbered by Israeli forces nearly 14 to 1 and enduring very heavy casualties; primarily as a result of one the worst bombing campaigns observed since the end of the second World War. Though the group has certainly been weakened, U.S. government sources have acknowledged that those losses have been replenished by a steady wave of fresh recruits. If that’s true, those recruits will be sent back into guerilla warfare operations against IDF forces should the ceasefire deal fall apart yet again.
For the Israeli government, it represents its continued failure to remove and eliminate Hamas’ presence from the Gaza Strip — a sore spot that is especially angering many within Israel’s extreme right-wing. For the families of the 248 Israeli captives, it represents an enormous breakthrough and partial relief for the agony and pain that they have endured. This, of course, pales in comparison to the ongoing collective misery experienced by some 16,000 Palestinian prisoners and their families, many of whom have yet to be charged with a single crime and will remain in Israeli jails for the foreseeable future.
Palestine and Israel have been in conflict for decades because Israel and its allies believe Palestinian land is rightfully Israel’s. The current ceasefire agreement is an important first step in this most recent escalation, but it’s unclear if it will be permanent. If each of the three phases of the ceasefire are completed, then that could lead to a permanent cessation of hostilities, a halt to the genocide and the much needed rebuilding of Gaza.
Cover image of Palestinians in Gaza celebrating on January 16, 2025, via a video contributed by Mohamed Ahmed.
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