A ceasefire between Hamas and Israel came into effect on October 10, 2025, potentially facilitating the return of millions of Palestinians to their homes in the besieged Gaza Strip. This is the third ceasefire signed between both sides since the Hamas-led incursion into Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent genocide in Gaza.

Over 68,000 Palestinians have been confirmed killed since, with possibly tens of thousands more buried underneath tons of rubble. According to leaked data from the Israeli military itself over 83% of casualties in this war have been Palestinian civilians – most being Palestinian women and children. While high rates of civilian deaths is a common reality of war, this exceptionally high rate of civilian deaths in Gaza ranks among the deadliest in modern history.

Israeli forces have since mostly withdrawn to positions outside of Gaza City, Khan Younis and Rafah where the fiercest urban combat had been raging as part of Israel’s stalled attempt to seize the entirety of the Gaza Strip. There are still at least tens of thousands of troops deployed deep within the territory. Currently, Israeli troops are occupying a little more than half of the enclave, ready to resume pushing forward with their ground invasion at a moment’s notice.

Many Gazans immediately celebrated the news, before braving the perilous journey back to largely destroyed homes. As bulldozers have begun removing endless piles of debris, humanitarian aid convoys from the Egyptian Red Crescent and the UN have slowly started trickling in. A week into the ceasefire, Israel continues to block the majority of aid.

The first phase of this ceasefire has seen the release of all living Israeli captives, 20, in exchange for 1,968 Palestinian prisoners. Israel has further promised to progressively withdraw its forces from Gaza depending on the progress of ongoing negotiations.

Given recent history, however, many fear that Israel isn’t serious about negotiations and will resume its offensive shortly after those negotiations fail again. Already the ceasefire appears to be barely holding on as continued clashes have killed at least two Israeli soldiers and 97 Palestinians since. On the other hand, if the ceasefire holds and negotiations succeed there is hope that an end to the war will lead to a Palestinian state.

Prisoner Exchanges; Search for Missing Israeli Captives Continues

Most of the 1,968 released Palestinian captives have been held in Israeli jails since the beginning of the war two years ago. Of the nearly 2,000 Palestinians released, 1,718 were taken from Gaza to Israeli prisons during the latest war and were held in administrative detention without criminal charges.

Another 250 were serving life sentences in Israeli prisons and captured before the war — most were taken from the West Bank and were members of Hamas’ longtime political rival faction, Fatah.

Of the 250 prisoners released, a total of 154 Palestinians will not be allowed to return home, instead they’ve been forcibly exiled, initially to Egypt, and onwards to currently unknown countries.

Many families of the Palestinian prisoners didn’t even know that their loved ones were being released until the day of. After release some were able to speak to the media, describing horrific scenes of systemic torture and inhumane conditions in Israeli prisons.

Around 10,400 Palestinians remain in Israeli jails — around 400 of them being children. There are 3,376 Palestinians held captive held without charge on administrative detention with no access to lawyers. Over 100 medical workers are also being held without charge.

All 20 of the living Israeli captives were males and were released by Hamas on Monday before Israel started to release their Palestinian counterparts. Under terms of the deal, Hamas was also to hand over the dead remains of some 28 captives killed during the war — all but one of them being males. On Wednesday, the group released the bodily remains of seven captives, one on Friday and another two on Saturday.

There are still 15 Israeli captives’ bodies that Hamas says it has so far been “unable to reach” due logistical difficulties and the need for “special equipment to search for.” Israel is also disputing that one of the dead bodies is an unknown Palestinian, not a part of their known list of captives. The issues over bodily remains was immediately used as a pretext by Israel to deny humanitarian aid flows from the Rafah border crossing as previously agreed.

Israeli forces have also publicly issued threats over the issue, claiming it will resume the war on Gaza “in coordination with the United States” if it doesn’t receive all of its captives. President Donald Trump has notably taken a softer tone on the issue stressing that more time will be needed to recover the bodies and that his administration was working with mediators to achieve this.

Meanwhile, Israel has so far released the remains of 150 dead Palestinians marked only with numbers and no identification and many of whom showing signs of torture and execution. The bodies were transferred from Israel’s Sde Teiman base — a military prison notorious for torture and deaths in custody. As part of the ceasefire, they are to release the remains of around 360 dead Palestinians who they claim were fighters.

Ongoing Problems with Trump’s ‘Gaza War Peace Plan’

This most recent ceasefire was again the result of complex indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas largely sponsored by the U.S. and regional governments including Qatar, Egypt and Turkey. This led to drafting and approval of the “Gaza War Peace Plan” which now has general support from Israel and various Middle Eastern countries advocating on behalf of the Palestinians.

But while Hamas and the overall Palestinian resistance movement in Gaza has shown a general willingness to recover and release the remaining dead captives and relinquish governance of Gaza, they have not agreed to any of the other points in the peace plan. And while all sides appear open to the possibility of an international armed police force to secure Gaza — excluding Hamas, Israeli or American soldiers — Hamas and its allies have not agreed to give up their weapons, nor leave Gaza entirely.

Complicating matters is the fact that there are now a number of different armed Palestinian groups that have emerged since the start of the current conflict. Some of these groups are merely exploiting wartime conditions for profit — aid looters, drug smugglers, etc. — while others have been especially formed to combat Hamas.

The “Popular Forces” is currently the largest and most notorious of these anti-Hamas factions, with known connections to Israel and the Islamic State group in Egypt, among others. There are also a number of smaller anti-Hamas factions aligned with Fatah that have sprung up. Fatah is a major Palestinian political party that currently presides over the occupied West Bank and was the dominant political force in the Gaza Strip before losing elections there to Hamas in 2006 and expelled a year later. Israel used this pretext to begin their land, air, and sea blockade of the Gaza Strip starting in 2007.

In recent days, immediately following the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza’s urban centers, Hamas immediately deployed thousands of its fighters to secure areas left behind by Israeli forces and clamp down on various armed opposition groups. Clashes between Hamas and rival factions have since been reported in these areas, with the group executing dozens of people they accuse of collaborating with Israel.

As of Oct. 20, Israeli forces have also been documented killing at least 97 Palestinians since the start of the current ceasefire — most killed after a wave of airstrikes in response to the deaths of two Israeli soldiers in Rafah. Israel blamed Hamas for the attack on its troops in Rafah — a charge that the group denies. Sources close to the White House say that they knew this was not true, and that the cause of the killing was actually an Israeli bulldozer running over an unexploded Israeli ordnance.

Despite this still very dangerous and active combat zone, hundreds of thousands of Gazans are returning to largely uninhabitable homes filled with unexploded bombs and dead bodies. The U.N. currently estimates that 84% of Gaza has been completely destroyed and that at least $70 billion will be needed for reconstruction efforts in the Gaza Strip and the Palestinian West Bank.

An unspecified number of European and Middle Eastern nations have signaled their willingness to contribute money towards Gaza’s reconstruction, according to the U.N. The U.S. has also pledged money towards the rebuilding effort, specifically under a Trump-sponsored economic plan dubbed the “Riviera of the Middle East.” The “Great Trust Plan for Gaza” proposal aims to turn the Gaza Strip into a dystopian, tourist, A.I. powered tax haven for the rich. When questioned about the plan, Trump originally stated that all of Gaza’s remaining population would be “temporarily relocated” while the U.S. would “take over” and “own” the Gaza Strip. This economic proposal has been widely criticized and rejected internationally only receiving support from Israel thus far. Trump has since appeared to back off on his Gaza Riviera plan.

The Gaza Peace Plan further envisions a transitional government staffed by an “independent body of Palestinian technocrats” to manage Gaza’s reconstruction. According to the current language of the plan, these technocrats will be subordinate to a board of directors that could possibly be chaired by U.S. President Donald Trump or even former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair.

Reports in recent weeks have linked the Tony Blair Institute of Global Change, which operates in 45 countries, to American tech billionaire Larry Ellison and his massive data corporation Oracle; he is considered a strong supporter of Israel. Ellison also played a key role in vetting Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s views on Israel a decade ago.

Both Hamas and Israel have already reportedly agreed to a list of prospective Palestinians to assume these roles, though the proposed idea of Trump or another non-Palestinian presiding over this transitional body remains contested.

‘Lasting Peace’ or Return to War?

Even in the unlikely event that all of the previously mentioned disputes are resolved, decades will still be needed to rebuild Gaza’s shattered schools, hospitals and other critical infrastructure. Though the state of Israel is mostly responsible for destroying said infrastructure, they have thus far pledged nothing towards rebuilding costs.

There are also still many unresolved issues and questions over who will administer the rebuilding of Gaza and how. While all sides seemingly agree that Hamas should no longer be involved in running the enclave, it remains to be seen who else could realistically could take their place.

The Americans and Europeans maintain their preference for a Fatah-led Palestinian Authority (PA) returning to power in Gaza. Critics of this plan are quick to point out Fatah’s previous political failures in Gaza that led to them losing elections before being expelled by Hamas.

Israel, a longtime enemy of Fatah, also rejects the idea of the PA reassuming control of Gaza. (It is also unclear how much electoral support Fatah has in the occupied West Bank: No parliamentary elections have taken place in the occupied Palestinian territories since 2006.)

Many believe that Israel thus has no intention to negotiate in good faith with Hamas and that they only agreed to the ceasefire to secure the release of the last remaining captives before resuming the war in earnest.

There was hesitance within the wider Palestinian resistance movement to give away their strongest leverage in the captives without securing more tangible guarantees from Israel. But the daily pressures of war and Trump’s effort to get Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to sign the deal may have compelled both sides to accept terms they otherwise wouldn’t have. Through this indirect political pressure, Hamas and allies hope more concessions can be extracted from Israel during negotiations.

Somewhat separately, there are also the current charges of genocide levied against Israel by South Africa at the International Court of Justice, which the South Africans have pledged to continue regardless of what happens during Hamas-Israel negotiations.

Analysis: The Cause and Impact of South Africa’s ICJ Case Against Israel

Despite the current dark and uncertain reality, many of Gaza’s remaining residents have been uplifted by the ceasefire and optimistic that fortunes are turning around.

Unicorn Riot spoke to displaced Gaza residents about the ceasefire and the dangerous journey back home. When asked about the likely probability of returning to a destroyed home, Abu Fathi enthusiastically responded, “Even if there are no houses, we go back and we will be fine. I’m very happy, thank God. I hope this story doesn’t repeat itself and the war ends.”

---

More media from Palestine linked in the image below.

---

Follow us on X (aka Twitter), Facebook, YouTube, Vimeo, Instagram, Mastodon, Threads, BlueSky and Patreon.

Please consider a tax-deductible donation to help sustain our horizontally-organized, non-profit media organization: