🦄 Global

Syrian Rebels Topple Assad Dynasty; Establish Transitional Government

By Unicorn Riot, Dingane Xaba

On December 7, 2024, Syrian revolutionaries entered their nation’s capital of Damascus completely unopposed as thousands of Syrian Arab Army soldiers continued their steady withdrawal from their defensive positions, and the army all together. The rebels’ surprise offensive overthrew five decades of Assad family rule in Syria.

Many hope that the fall of Damascus will finally end the nearly 14-year-long Syrian Civil War which has so far claimed the lives of around 600,000 people and displaced at least 13 million more. Significant conflicts persist in an ever-changing and complex war which has come to involve a myriad of different factions and nation-states all competing for power and influence over Syria.

Though tens of thousands of Syrians abroad have started returning to their homelands, others worry that the fighting isn’t truly over, while questioning what exactly they would be coming back to.

Syrians Facing Expulsions at Home and Abroad

Extensive damage to Syria caused by the war has placed reconstruction costs somewhere between $250 billion to $1 trillion. Syria’s new leaders have since gone on an international charm offensive in the hopes of convincing the world they can peacefully govern a free and united Syria. However, serious doubts and questions about the rebel group’s rule persist as Syria remains a highly dynamic, divided and heavily contested combat zone.

The rebel capture of Damascus was the result of a surprise offensive launched in late November by a coalition of Free Syrian Army groups, led by the al-Qaeda affiliated Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham — previously known as Al-Nusra and more commonly known now as HTS.

HTS-led forces advanced quickly from their bases in the Idlib province towards the strategically important city of Aleppo, capturing it within a couple of days. The Kurdish-led and U.S. supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) then began to clash with the Turkish-supported Syrian National Army — which had launched its own concurrent offensive alongside HTS — specifically targeting the Kurds.

White = Tahrir al-Sham and allies
Dark purple = Israeli occupation
Yellow = Syrian Democratic Forces and Americans
Light green = Syrian National Army and Turkish occupation
Cyan = Syrian Free Army and Americans
Purple = Southern Operations Room
Gray = Uncertain/mixed
[source: Institute for the Study of War]

The SDF attempted to defend its remaining positions in the Aleppo area but were ultimately forced to evacuate its military personnel along with thousands of internally displaced Kurds from Tel Rifaat and the Shahba Canton mostly to the isolated enclave of Aleppo’s Sheikh Maqsood district.

Further to the east, SDF forces had captured the oil rich town of Deir ez-Zor while also seizing the strategic Al-Bukamal border crossing, effectively cutting off any possibility of Iranian reinforcements to the Syrian government. Arab residents of Deir ez-Zor immediately protested the SDF’s presence, demanding they hand control over to the HTS-led coalition — some Arabs within the SDF defected to HTS over the issue. As a result, the SDF pulled out of the strategically important town which is currently controlled by HTS.

HTS-led forces continued their rapid assault from Idlib southward, capturing Homs and Hama within days. Russian air strikes emanating from their local air base in Syria’s Latakia Province attempted to stunt this advance but were ultimately unsuccessful.

By December 6, the rebels had taken control of most of Syrian government territory and reached the gates of the capital Damascus. It was at this point that Iran decided to pull its forces completely out of Syria, issuing mass evacuation orders to all Iranian military personnel and citizens.

Longtime Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was initially reported to be in Damascus at that time but would later manage to escape via a secret Russian facilitated flight to Latakia and onwards to Moscow only a day before the rebels fully captured Damascus. Initial reports claimed that Assad’s plane had been shot down but this was later debunked by the Russians who confirmed that Assad was in Moscow and that they granted Assad and his family asylum on “humanitarian grounds.”

Mass looting and destruction of government property ensued as public symbols of Assad were torn down. The evacuated Iranian embassy was also looted — though the Chinese and Russian embassies are notably still active and functioning.

Israel Invades Syrian Golan Heights

During the ensuing celebrations across the country, Israel immediately took advantage of the situation by invading Syrian territory in the long contested and strategically important Golan Heights. The Israeli Defense Forces advanced into Syrian territory completely unopposed since Syrian government forces had abandoned their defensive positions along the Israeli-Syrian border.

After taking complete control of the Golan Heights, Israel asked all remaining Syrian residents in the regional capital city of Quneitra to leave. When residents refused, the IDF responded by destroying public water and road infrastructure to force them to leave. More recently, Israeli forces surrounded government buildings in Quneitra and expelled employees. Syrians protesting the Israeli invasion of their lands on the outskirts of Daara countryside were also reportedly shot at by IDF soldiers.

Israel claims that its latest Syrian invasion is a “temporary measure” meant to secure its borders and is now within easy striking distance of Damascus. Evidence on the ground suggests that they’re there to stay, as the Israeli government has approved new settlement expansions projects in the Golan Heights.

Concurrently, the Israeli Air Force launched what has been described as the “largest aerial operation in its history” targeting weapons abandoned by the Syrian military. This is due to Israeli fears that these weapons could come into the possession of unfriendly Syrian rebel groups. The IDF announced that the vast majority of Syria’s strategic weapons stockpiles had been destroyed, as it has reportedly conducted over 600 airstrikes in Syria within an eight-day period.

One particular explosion emanating from an Israeli airstrike in Tartus was so large that it triggered a 3.0 magnitude earthquake, leading some to suspect that Israel had used a small nuclear bomb.

Israel denies those accusations, stating that it had targeted a large ammunition depot that had belonged to the Syrian army and that ammunition simultaneously exploding was the reason for the abnormally large blast.

Most of Syria’s air defense weapons systems have been reportedly destroyed as well, which some analysts believe will give Israel greater abilities to strike both Syria and perhaps more importantly neighboring Iran.

The new Syrian authorities in HTS denounced Israel’s invasion, while also acknowledging that the country was exhausted by war and was in no position to get into another conflict with Israel. The international community has also roundly criticized Israel for its Golan Heights takeover, calling it a violation of the 1974 U.N. brokered ceasefire agreement. As per tradition, the U.S. is the only country to have come out in full support of Israel’s latest invasion of a foreign country, repeating its talking points virtually line for line.

How Did Assad’s Army Collapse So Quickly?

The lightning quick progress of the HTS-led offensive code-named “Deterrence of Aggression,” came as a huge surprise to most observers. Evidence suggests that HTS had even surprised themselves and didn’t expect to make as much progress as they did. Only months prior, the Syrian rebel movement had largely been pushed back and contained within their last bastion in the Idlib province, where they’ve resided for the past five years.

A series of important geopolitical events in the region, however, may have inadvertently helped turn the tide in their favor, in particular, the most recent Israel-Hezbollah war in neighboring Lebanon. Though that conflict has mostly subsided, for now, it would end up consuming a huge amount of Hezbollah’s resources. The Syrian government had largely depended on Iranian military assistance and Hezbollah to combat the rebels, but the latter’s preoccupation with fighting Israel meant that the Syrian army would be largely left to fight on their own.

The Syrian government had also heavily relied on Russian military assistance, particularly its air force, to combat the rebels. However, Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine has greatly diminished its ability to deploy sufficient military resources to Syria.

This would ultimately prove disastrous for the Assad dynasty as its military was generally well-equipped but had been plagued by generations of institutional corruption and low morale. As such, when they came into contact with fast moving, heavily armed and highly motivated FSA rebels, their will to fight steadily eroded, ultimately culminating in the bloodless capture of Damascus.

Syrian Transitional Government Seeks Unity Amid Continued Fighting, Extends Election Timeline To Four Years

Since seizing power, HTS-led rebels have formed a transitional government in an effort to unify Syria’s diverse ethnic and political groups. This has resulted in a number of armed groups dissolving and integrating into the newly established Syrian Ministry of Defense. Notably the Kurdish-led SDF is not a part of this merger and it still remains unclear exactly which groups are.

HTS largely controls this new transitional government as the vast majority of the new cabinet positions are dominated by its ranks. Longtime HTS leader, Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa has been appointed as Syria’s commander-in-chief and is now regarded as Syria’s de-facto leader.

Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known by his alias Abu Mohammad al-Julani, is the founder and current leader of HTS. His military career began in the aftermath of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, where he joined the notorious Islamist group Al-Qaeda in fighting against the subsequent U.S. occupation of Iraq. He was then captured by U.S. forces in 2006 and released in 2011 — the very same year that the Syrian Revolution began.

This photo was taken by U.S forces at the time of Ahmed al-Sharaa’s capture in 2006. It is the first known public photo of him. [source: U.S. Dept. of Defense, likely Central Command]
Ahmed al-Sharaa in currently trying to impress upon world leaders — particularly the West — that HTS is ready to govern Syria. [source: freemalysiatoday.com]

The U.S. government had held a 10 million dollar bounty over al-Sharaa’s head since 2013 that was recently rescinded as negotiations began between the Americans and HTS following the latter’s capture of Damascus. Washington, however, still designates HTS as a “terrorist organization” and has laid out a set of conditions that HTS will need to fulfill before they are removed from the terror list. Al-Sharaa claims HTS will soon be dissolved and that it could be four years before an electoral cycle occurs.

HTS is also seeking Syria’s removal from the U.S. sanctions list in an effort to rebuild an economy that has been devastated by nearly 14 years of war. Those efforts have been unsuccessful as the U.S. Congress made the decision on December 23 to renew sanctions against post-Assad Syria, which are currently scheduled to be in effect for the next five years.

The Syrian transitional government is thus under heavy international and domestic scrutiny as many are worried about HTS’ ultra-conservative Islamist stance and how this could negatively impact women and ethnic minority rights. Much like the Taliban after recently taking control of Afghanistan, HTS is making considerable efforts to soften its hardline image, promising broad protection for all of Syria’s minority communities and granting some limited rights to women. Nevertheless, a heavy amount of skepticism persists from critics, who point to the numerous human rights violations the group has been involved in against minorities women and children since the start of the war.

Kurdish communities in Rojava have mostly found themselves at odds with HTS during the course of the war. HTS receives significant backing from Turkey (Türkiye) — Rojava’s arch enemy. As such, there is a growing amount of open opposition to HTS rule, in particular emanating from Syria’s Alawite and Kurdish communities.

‘Security Operations’ In Latakia And Tartus

The Alawites are an ethnic minority group from Syria that have dominated Syrian politics since Hafez al-Assad’s rise to power in the 1960s. The al-Assad family themselves are Alawites that hail from the Latakia Governorate — one of only two majority Alawite Governorates that straddle Syria’s Mediterranean coast.

Tartus [source: Flickr]

Slinfah, Latakia [source:
Jadd Haidar, Wikipedia]

Both Latakia and Tartus have avoided the bulk of the destruction from the Syrian Civil War and have been left relatively untouched. These regions are also home to the only Russian naval and air bases located outside of the former Soviet Union. Despite Assad’s defeat, the Russians have not pulled out and plan to keep military bases in the country.


Khmeimim Air Base in Latakia, Syria [source: NASA]
720th Material-Technical Support Point of the Russian Navy in Syria [source: NASA]

On Christmas Day, a video circulated online showing unknown armed men desecrating an Alawite shrine and mutilating the bodies of five unidentified people. The interior ministry claimed that the video was from last year and that the crimes depicted were committed by rogue elements not under HTS control.

Still, thousands of Alawite demonstrators took to the streets in various cities across Latakia and Tartus, demanding justice and accountability. This was not the only instance of sectarian protests that the new Syrian government has had to deal with as just the day before, hundreds of Christians marched in Damascus over the release of a video showing masked men committing arson on a Christmas tree.

That very same Tuesday before Christmas, 14 police were killed by pro-Assad gunmen in Tartus. Syrian authorities claim that their security personnel were ambushed during an operation to arrest a former Syrian Army officer wanted for crimes he allegedly committed at the notorious Saydnaya Prison near Damascus.

In response, the new Syrian authorities issued curfews in the cities’ of Homs, Latakia, Jableh and Tartus, attempting to quell the unrest there as thousands of Alawites continue to flee Syria over fears of retaliation for Assad’s crimes.

Turkey Increasing Its Pressure On The Kurds

Out of all of the countries involved in the current Syrian civil war, perhaps none have benefited more from Assad’s downfall than Turkey. Turkey militarily intervened and prevented HTS and other Syrian rebels in Idlib from being completely destroyed by a Syrian government offensive in 2017. This provided Turkey with an enormous amount of leverage over Syria’s new leaders in the HTS, as well as its allied proxy force in the Syrian National Army (SNA) — the latter of which is currently involved in a ferocious battle against Rojava and the Syrian Democratic Forces for control over the important city of Manbij.

Rojava, now known officially as the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), has indicated a willingness to integrate into a wider Syria subject to certain conditions that include a general respect for its autonomy and the guarantee of certain rights and freedoms for women and minorities.

In the meantime, the AANES’ armed wing, Syrian Democratic Forces, has thus far refused to relinquish its weapons and integrate into the new Syrian armed forces. This has caused a great deal of tension between HTS and its backer in Turkey which has firmly insisted on preventing the existence of any independent Kurdish-led territory along its border.

This has resulted in somewhat of a stalemate between the SDF and the SNA as both battle for control of crucial ground ahead of the looming January 20 inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Many Kurds fear that the incoming Trump administration will merely repeat its past policy of abandoning the Syrian Kurds, thus allowing the Turkish military to completely destroy the AANES.

Suaad Omar, a former Unicorn Riot contributor and former Kurdish Red Crescent volunteer who has previously reported from the AANES’ Shahba Canton, told UR that Kurds in Syria were very worried about further Turkish advances in northern Syria, stressing that the American military presence was crucial.

“If the Americans leave, then some SDF commanders will leave with them because they know they cannot face the Turkish army alone. Rojava will not survive the Turkish invasion unless the Iraqi Peshmerga forces come in to assist, then maybe it will have a chance.”

Suaad Omar, former Kurdish Red Crescent volunteer

Omar confirmed that the AANES’ Shahba canton, a former political unit of Rojava near Aleppo which formerly housed thousands of internally displaced people from Afrin, was abolished after a recent SNA offensive in Aleppo pushed the SDF out of the area. Many of its inhabitants fled into the nearby Kurdish-dominated Aleppo neighborhood of Sheik Maqsood as well as other places throughout the AANES. Some were even allowed to migrate back into Afrin, though Omar says she no longer has contact with those people.

Amid Post-Assad Wreckage, The Fight For Survival Rages On

Despite the downfall of the Assad dynasty significant problems and barriers remain that threaten to derail the monumental accomplishments of the Syrian opposition. Continued foreign involvement by the U.S., Russia, Israel, Iran, Turkey and others has only further complicated matters as all seek to claim their own piece of the Syrian pie. Out of them all, Turkey now currently holds the biggest slice and will use that newfound leverage in its ongoing efforts to crush the Kurdish resistance in Syria once and for all.

Questions remain over exactly how the new government will treat the remnant pro-Assad factions and the wider Alawite community in general. Many thousands of disgruntled soldiers of the former Syrian Arab Army are still present within Syria. It isn’t inconceivable that some of these men may be itching for revenge and may transfer their talents into establishing an insurgency against the interim government — similar to how Iraqi military veterans helped establish the Iraqi insurgency against the American occupation after the second Gulf War.

If that happens and the ongoing Turkish-Kurdish conflict accelerates in the north while the Israelis continue to seize more Syrian lands in the south, then the overall Syrian Civil War does not appear to be ending anytime soon. In fact, it appears that the war is entering into a new phase, one which will ensure that Syria remains divided amongst various religious, political and ethnic lines for the foreseeable future.

Cover photo by Leo Correa/Associated Press.

Edit 01/07/25: corrected sentence to clarify Suaad as a former Red Crescent volunteer. Also added “Iraqi Peshmerga forces” and deleted “militia” from quote.

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Published January 3, 2025
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